Opti Forecast 7/29

Sailing Weather Forecast

Optimist Nationals

Lake Minnetonka, MN

Issued: 0700LT Sunday, 29 JULY 2007

 

REQUEST: Feedback is an important part of the process toward improving weather forecasts. Please send daily weather notes and feedback to msanders@sailwx.com thanks!

 

WEATHER RISKS: There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.

Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories.

 

Synopsis: As predicted lots of dead air and very light winds made for poor sailing conditions yesterday on Lake Minnetonka. The forecast called for a NE wind gradually turning to the E by 1100 and then SE by 1300. This occurred but as predicted the wind remained below 6 kts so shifty conditions persisted though the day. 

 

Yesterday high pressure directly overhead resulted in very light winds. Today the high shifts slightly to the SE, over southern Wisconsin. This places the Lake Minnetonka area in a marginally better, but not great, wind situation as a S-SSW flow becomes established. The good news is that the high provides wall to wall sunshine.     

 

At 0630 this morning the MYC weather station and all others around the region are reporting a calm wind. The wind has remained calm since 0100 this past night.    

 

Satellite and radar images are clear this morning with high pressure firmly in control. Surface observations around the region indicate unrestricted visibility. 

 

Forecast Discussion: The presently calm wind should gain some intensity through the early morning so that by 1000 it is out of the S at 02-05 kts. Come 1300 a build to 04-08 kts is expected as the wind remains southerly. Late in the afternoon, near 1700, a shift to the SSW occurs as speeds decline to 03-06 kts. Remember that such light winds tend to be shifty so the indicated direction is the average for that period.

 

Weather: Clear and sunny skies are the name of the game today courtesy of high pressure. Under the bright hazy sunshine temperatures rise to high of 89 F with moderate humidity. Expect a high UV index near 10.  

 

Seas: A Calm, at times glassy, lake surface is expected today with light winds.  

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/29/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction 

1000      02-05         SSE-S       …very light winds during the early AM

1100      02-06         S           …a general S wind but remaining shifty

1200      03-07         S         

1300      04-08         S                

1400      04-08         S           …max winds of the day but still shifty

1500      04-08         S          

1600      03-07         S    

1700      03-06         S-SSW      

1800      03-06         SSW

 

Hedge: Forecast confidence is AVERAGE today. Again, remember the light wind is going to result in shifty conditions so the indicated direction is the forecasted average at that time. Unlike yesterday, the sky will be clear without the clouds that helped to create occasional puffs of wind. Instead, the lake will experience a steady light wind through the day. Heating may result in the development of a weak lake breeze this afternoon. This would produce a wind blowing from the lake to the shore. Along the southern part of the lake such a wind would oppose the S wind and create a calm area. However, near the northern shore a lake breeze would aid the S wind to increase wind speeds. Consequently, expect the best wind this afternoon across the northern portion of the lake.

 

Monday (30 JULY 2007): Winds build slightly tomorrow as a stronger SW flow is established. Expect a SW wind though the day beginning at 03-06 kts near 1000 and then building to a maximum of 05-09 kts around 1500. Winds will gust to 15 kts.

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Monday (07/30/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction

1000      03-06         SW

1200      04-08         SW

1400      05-09         SW

1600      05-09         SW

1800      04-08         SW-WSW

 

Weather: The sunshine continues as the thermometer pushes to a high near 92 F with building humidity.    

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

 

Tuesday (31 JULY 2007): A SW wind at 04-07 kts until 1200 and then turning S and building to 07-11 kts during the afternoon. Hazy sunshine with a high of 94 F.

 

Wednesday (01 August 2007):  Expect a SSW wind at 06-10 kts prior to 1300 and then  veering to the WSW by 1600 at 08-12 kts. Sunshine with increasing late afternoon clouds and scattered thunderstorms, a high near 92 F. 

 

Thursday (02 August 2007): The day starts with a NE wind that begins to turn to the NNE by mid afternoon. Wind speeds of 03-06 kts early, building to 05-09 kts during the afternoon. Partly cloudy with a high of 86.

 

 

Sailing Weather Services hopes that you enjoyed this forecast and found it useful during Nationals. Again, please feel free to send any comments to msanders@sailwx.com. Congratulations to all the young sailors, you did a great job navigating the variety of wind conditions during the race week.    

 

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Opti Forecast 7/28

Sailing Weather Forecast

Optimist Nationals

Lake Minnetonka, MN

Issued: 0700LT Saturday, 28 JULY 2007

 

REQUEST: Feedback is an important part of the process toward improving weather forecasts. Please send daily weather notes and feedback to msanders@sailwx.com. Thanks!

 

WEATHER RISKS: There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.

Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories and keep an eye to the sky!

 

Synopsis: The forecast unfolded as planned yesterday, producing fine conditions for Opti sailing. As predicted the wind held from the N through the day with a slight shift to the NNW near 1600. The MYC weather station shows that wind speeds behaved as planned, building from 07-10 kts in the early morning to 09-13 kts during the afternoon. Wind gusts were slightly underestimated at 18 kts as several in the low 20 kt range were reported.   

 

High pressure builds overhead today and while this results nice weather it is bad news for sailors. This weather scenario means that the wind will be extremely light to calm and quite variable in direction through the day. Only slight improvement is expected tomorrow as the high slides southeast and the area is placed in a weak return flow.

 

A calm to near 2 kt wind from the NE is reported by the MYC weather station at 0630 this morning. The light wind is quite variable around the region with other observing stations in an easterly or northerly wind. 

 

Radar is clear but satellite indicates a band of broken clouds stretching across the central and southern portion of Minnesota. These clouds are sinking southeast, away from Lake Minnetonka, as high pressure settles in from the Dakotas. 

 

Forecast Discussion: The current NE wind is likely to turn E by 1000 and then SE come 1200. Wind speed through the morning hours is going to be very light at 01-03 kts with calm periods. The wind persists from the SE through the afternoon with only a slight increase in speed to 02-06 kts, again with calm periods. Wind direction tends to vary in light air so the indicated directions are the forecast average for the period.

 

Weather: The clouds presently overhead stick around through the morning hours, breaking at times to give peeks of sunshine. Skies become mostly sunny this afternoon, it will feel comfortable with a high near 87 F and low humidity. After the clouds clear the UV index will rise to a high value of 10.

 

Seas: Glassy conditions on the water today with the nearly calm wind.

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/28/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction 

1000      01-03         ENE-E

1100      01-04         E           …very light to calm winds during the AM

1200      02-04         ESE-SE      …slight turn to the SE     

1300      02-05         SE               

1400      02-06         SE          …general SE direction but remaining shifty

1500      02-06         SE         

1600      02-06         SE   

1700      02-05         SE-SSE           

1800      01-04         SSE

 

Hedge: Forecast confidence is AVERAGE today for wind speed but BELOW AVERAGE for wind direction. As noted the light wind is going to result in shifty conditions so the indicated direction is the forecasted average at that time. In such conditions the wind tends to be puffy, blowing for a short period and then becoming calm. Sailors must pay very close attention to the wind direction and speed in these conditions so that they can take advantage of momentary puffs of wind. These puffs of wind are most likely on the edge of breaking clouds so also pay attention to the sky.  

 

Sunday (29 JULY 2007): Wind conditions improve slightly tomorrow as the high slides just SE of the area. Winds again start off light during the morning at 02-05 kts from the SSW. Near noontime a slight turn the SW is expected as winds build to 04-08 kts and hold through the afternoon.

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Sunday (07/29/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction

1000      02-05         SSW

1200      03-07         SSW-SW

1400      04-08         SW

1600      04-08         SW

1800      03-07         SW

 

Weather: Sunshine with a few scattered clouds. The thermometer rises to 88 F and it will feel slightly more humid.  

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

 

Monday (30 JULY 2007): A S wind at 03-06 kts through the day. Bright sunny skies with a high near 91 F.

 

Tuesday (31 JULY 2007):  Expect a continued southerly wind building from 03-06 kts early to 05-09 kts by 1300 and through the afternoon. Temperatures reach 92 F under hazy skies. 

 

Wednesday (01 August 2007): The day starts with a SSW wind that begins to turn to the WSW by mid afternoon. Wind speeds of 05-09 kts through the day. Sunny with increasing afternoon clouds and scattered late day thunderstorms.

 

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Opti Forecast 7/27

Sailing Weather Forecast

Optimist Nationals

Lake Minnetonka, MN

Issued: 0700LT Friday, 27 JULY 2007

 

REQUEST: Feedback is an important part of the process toward improving weather forecasts. Please send daily weather notes and feedback to msanders@sailwx.com. Thanks!

 

WEATHER RISKS: There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.

Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories and keep an eye to the sky!

 

Synopsis: Yesterdays forecast unfolded nicely. Winds blew out of the SW at 05-09 kts as predicted through 1300. Then the forecasted left hand shift to the WSW and eventually W occurred during the afternoon as winds held at 06-10 kts. Gusts were a bit higher than expected, near 23 kts, and the precipitation arrived nearly two hours after the predicted 1500 start time.    

 

The best sailing conditions of the remaining race week should occur today. High pressure sinking southeast from the Dakotas will provide the Lake Minnetonka area with a steady N wind, perfect for Opti sailing. The high produces clear weather through the weekend but it will lead to some light winds, especially on Saturday.  

 

At 0630 the weather stations at Flying Cloud and Minneapolis are in a northerly wind near 6 kts with gusts to 14 kts. 

 

Radar is clear while satellite shows a few clouds so the morning dawns with sunshine and a few clouds. Surface observations show no obstructions to visibility.

 

Forecast Discussion: Expect a N wind through much of the day. A 07-10 kt wind kicks off the day at 1000 this morning. Come 1300 an increase to 09-13 kts occurs as winds remain northerly. Gusts upwards of 18 kts are possible during the afternoon. Late in the afternoon, near 1700, a very slight left shift to the NNE may occur as the wind decreases to 07-11 kts.  

 

Weather: After a few clouds very early this morning clear sunny skies are the theme of the day. The air is less humid than yesterday so combined with a cooler high near 84 F it will feel much more comfortable. The bright sunshine means that the UV index will be high at 9. 

 

Seas: Light chop is expected through the day on the lake. 

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/27/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction 

1000      07-10         N    

1100      08-11         N           …wind speeds increase through late morning

1200      09-12         N          

1300      09-13         N           …best sailing between 1300-1700    

1400      09-13         N           …gusts to 18 kts through the afternoon

1500      09-13         N          

1600      08-12         N    

1700      07-11         N-NNE       …possible small left shift

1800      07-11         N-NNE

 

Hedge: Forecast confidence is ABOVE AVERAGE today. As noted the best wind of the next three days should occur today. Take full advantage of this wind because tomorrow it will become very light and shifty before a slight improvement on Sunday. The best wind of the day is likely between 1300 and 1700 and will be over the central and southern portions of the lake. Gusts will also be stronger further from shore, over open water.

 

Saturday (28 JULY 2007): Tomorrow is going to be a challenging day for sailing due to very light and variable wind. The day begins at 1000 with a very light wind at 01-04 kts out of the E. A persistent left hand shift will occur through the day so that by 1300 the wind is ESE and then SE come 1700. However, with a very light wind at only 03-06 kts during the afternoon the direction can vary quite a bit.       

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Saturday (07/28/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction

1000      01-04         ENE-E

1200      02-05         E-ESE

1400      03-06         ESE

1600      03-06         ESE-SE

1800      02-05         SE-SSE

 

Weather: High pressure overhead will be responsible for the light wind but also produce clear blue skies though the day. Temperatures reach a high near 86 F with manageable humidity.  

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

 

Sunday (29 JULY 2007): A S wind to kick off the day backs SW by noontime. Some improvement in the wind over Saturday as a light morning breeze at 02-05 kts builds to 04-08 kts by early afternoon. The thermometer reaches 87 F with sunny skies.   

 

Monday (30 JULY 2007):  Expect a southerly wind through the day growing from 03-06 kts early to 05-09 kts by 1200 and through the afternoon. A high of 89 F under bright sunshine.   

 

Tuesday (31 JULY 2007): A steady but light S wind at 04-08 kts during the day. Sunshine with increasing afternoon clouds and a high of 88 F. 

 

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Opti Forecast 7/26

Sailing Weather Forecast

Optimist Nationals

Lake Minnetonka, MN

Issued: 0700LT Thursday, 26 JULY 2007

 

REQUEST: Feedback is an important part of the process toward improving weather forecasts. Please send daily weather notes and feedback to msanders@sailwx.com. Thanks!

 

WEATHER RISKS: 1) There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.

2) Showers and thunderstorms cross the area this afternoon and evening. These storms pose a threat to sailors, especially young ones, because they will likely produce heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds.

3) Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories and keep an eye to the sky!

 

Synopsis: Forecasted conditions occurred yesterday on Lake Minnetonka. The wind held to the predicted southerly direction through the day. Wind speed was also well forecasted at 05-09 kts before noon and then an increase to 08-12 kts during the mid afternoon. Wind gusts were under forecasted at 16 kts as gusts reached 20 kts at 1500.  

 

A cold front crosses the Lake Minnetonka area this afternoon with a period of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be out of the SW-WSW ahead of the front and then turn to the NW after the front passes. Improving weather comes tomorrow along with a brisk N wind, it is likely to be the best sailing conditions of the week.

 

A SSW wind at 04-07 kts with gusts to 10 kts is present at the MYC weather station and others around the region at 0700 this morning.

 

Satellite imagines indicate a mixture of clouds and sunshine with the radar currently clear of any precipitation. Good visibility at 8 miles or more is indicated by surface observations around the area.  

 

Forecast Discussion: The SSW wind currently in place turns to the SW by 1000 and blows at 05-09 kts. A build to 06-10 kts occurs by 1300 with a continued left hand shift to the WSW. The nearby front continues to push the wind left so that by 1600 it is from the W and remains at 06-10 kts before a move to the NW by 1900. Through the afternoon winds will gust to 17 kts. However, when the front crosses the area any thunderstorms can cause the wind to become briefly strong and very gusty.

 

Weather:  Mostly cloudy skies through the morning are replaced by complete cloud cover this afternoon. The front brings the chance of showers by 1300 with precipitation likely by 1500. Periods of rain and thunderstorms should then continue until midnight. Again, heavy downpours, strong wind gusts, and lighting are possible from any of the storms that occur with the frontal passage. Temperatures today reach 90 F but it will feel hotter with the high humidity. The UV index remains low, near 6. 

 

Seas: Light chop is expected on the lake but waters can become quite unsettled in any strong storms this afternoon. 

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/26/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction 

1000      05-09         SSW-SW     

1100      05-09         SW          …wind speeds increase through late morning

1200      06-09         SW         

1300      06-10         SW-WSW                 

1400      06-10         WSW         …gusts to 17 kts through the afternoon

1500      06-10         WSW         …stronger winds/gusts in storms until midnight

1600      06-10         WSW-W

1700      07-11         W          

1800      07-11         W-WNW

 

Hedge: Forecast confidence is ABOVE AVERAGE through 1300 and then AVERAGE thereafter due to the passage of the front. Winds may turn to the left a bit slower or faster depending on the exact movement of the front. However, confidence is high that the front crosses the area late in the day with the outlined period of rain and thunderstorms. Consequently, the best, and safest, sailing of the day will be before 1300 but this could be extended to as late as 1500. Please pay attention to the sky this afternoon for approaching storms.   

 

Friday (27 JULY 2007): Tomorrow is likely the best sailing day of the week due to a steady N wind. The area should start off the morning in a 06-09 kt wind from the N. The wind remains N through most of the afternoon, turning NNE late, and increases slightly to 07-11 kts. Gusts to 18 kts are possible though the day. 

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Friday (07/27/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction

1000      06-09         N

1200      06-10         N

1400      07-11         N

1600      07-11         N

1800      06-10         N-NNE

 

Weather: High pressure over the Dakotas pushes towards Minnesota tomorrow. Sunshine with a few clouds are likely through the morning and then expect mostly sunny conditions later in the day. Much drier air makes for a comfortable day with a high near 84 F.      

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

 

Saturday (28 JULY 2007): Winds ESE at 04-07 during the morning build to 06-09 kts after noon with a shift to the SE. Temperatures top out near 85 F under mostly sunny skies.  

 

Sunday (29 JULY 2007):  A SSE-S wind through the day starting off at 03-06 kts and building to 05-10 kts. A high of 87 F with sunny skies.   

 

Monday (30 JULY 2007): Expect a southerly wind at 04-07 kts during the morning, building to 07-11 kts later in the day. More sunshine and another high near 87 F.   

 

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A Slow Start at Nationals but Fun nonetheless!!

Day one and two at Opti Nationals got off to a slow start when the wind

would not come up and the race committee had to call the race off for both

days. The competitors managed to have lots of fun however, as they

stayed cool by jumping into Lake Minnetonka, paddled canoes around

Light House Island, read Harry Potter, enjoyed the fabulous food put out

by the tireless regatta committee, and shopped at the booths set up by

various Opti shops. There was also a beanbag toss, football, soccer, and

volleyball. Despite the poor sailing conditions everyone made the most of

their time together and smiles predominated.

The Jewitt family hosted a fantastic carnival for the young skippers and their

families replete with bounce houses, games, prizes, ice cream and face painting!

A big thank you to them and the entire regatta committee for a fabulous few

days.

The latest buzz from the regatta venue is that the skippers are now heading out

onto the water as the wind has come up. Day three of Opti Nationals begins

and it looks as if it will be an exciting one.

Opti Forecast 7/25

Sailing Weather Forecast
Optimist Nationals
Lake Minnetonka, MN
Issued: 0700LT Wednesday, 25 JULY 2007

REQUEST: Feedback is an important part of the process toward improving weather forecasts. Please send daily weather notes and feedback to  HYPERLINK "HYPERLINK mailto:msanders@sailwx.com mailto:msanders@sailwx.com" msanders@sailwx.com. Thanks!

WEATHER RISKS: There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.
Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories.

Synopsis: Yesterdays forecast unfolded as planned, at times, but there were several bumps in the road. During the morning, between 0900 and 1100, the wind became nearly calm and quite variable instead of the forecasted 03-05 kts from the S. The wind returned to the S for most of the afternoon but there were several brief periods of calm and variable winds that were outside the 04-08 kt forecasted range. These interruptions were caused by nearby thunderstorms that affected the local winds.  

Today Minnesota resides between low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to the southeast. This sets up a southerly wind that builds during the afternoon to provide good Optimist sailing conditions. The area remains dry and in S to SW wind until tomorrow evening when a cold front crosses the area with some showers and turns the wind to the W.    

The MYC weather station and others are presently reporting a very light S wind at 02-05 kts at 0630. The wind has been out of the S since last evening, decreasing in speed during the early morning hours.

A few scattered clouds exist overhead as seen on the Satellite. Radar indicates precipitation free skies with surface observations denoting some patchy fog around the region where visibility is reduced below 5 miles.  

Forecast Discussion: A southerly wind will be in place all day in the Lake Minnetonka area. This wind is going to be quite light at 02-06 kts through 0900 so some variability will exist. Thereafter the wind should build to 06-10 kts by 1200. Through the afternoon wind speeds increase to 08-12 kts with gusts to 16 kts and the direction holding from the S. Maximum winds should occur between 1500-1700.    

Weather: Expect a good amount of sunshine today along with scattered clouds and haze. It is going to be another hot one with the thermometer reaching 93 and high humidity making it quite muggy. The UV index is high today in the 9-10 range. 

Seas: The calm waters of this morning should develop some chop by midday as wind speeds build.

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/25/2007):
Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction 
1000      03-07         S      
1100      05-09         S               …wind speeds increase through late morning
1200      06-10         S            
1300      07-10         S                      
1400      07-11         S              
1500      08-12         S               …max winds of the day, gusts to 16 kts
1600      08-12         S      
1700      07-12         S              
1800      06-10         S

Hedge: Forecast confidence is ABOVE AVERAGE today as the wind should hold firmly out of the S and increase in speed, especially during the afternoon. The southerly direction will produce lighter areas of wind along the southern shore of the lake with the best winds over central and northern locations. Also, along the eastern and western shoreline the wind encounters less resistance over the water than the adjacent land. This may bend the wind to the SE along the eastern shore and SW near the western shoreline.    

Thursday (26 JULY 2007): The S wind persists into tomorrow morning and the day should begin with it blowing at 03-06 kts through 0900. A slow right hand shift then begins and continues through the remainder of the day. By 1200 the area will be in a SSW wind moving at a 06-10 kt clip. A continued build to a maximum 08-12 kts occurs near 1500 with the wind becoming SW at that time. The persistent right turn continues so that by 1800 winds are nearly westerly.   

Detailed Wind Forecast for Wednesday (07/25/2007):
Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction
1000      04-07         S-SSW
1200      06-10         SSW
1400      07-11         SSW-SW
1600      08-12         SW
1800      07-11         WSW-W

Weather: The day kicks off with mostly sunny skies but clouds will slowly increase, especially during the afternoon, as a cold front approaches. The area should remain dry through 1600 when the threat of showers increases, precipitation is likely during the evening and first half of the overnight. Temperatures remain toasty with a high of 90 F and continued high humidity.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

Friday (27 JULY 2007): This should be a very good sailing day with a 06-10 kt NNW to N wind through the day. High temperatures reach 85 F with sunshine and a few clouds.

Saturday (28 JULY 2007):  A NE wind at 03-07 kts through 1200, turning left to the ENE and holding at 03-07 during the afternoon. A high of 84 F under mostly sunny skies. 

Sunday (29 JULY 2007): Expect a SE wind through the day starting at 04-07 kts and building to 07-11 kts by 1500. More sunshine and another high near 85 F.  

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Opti Forecast 7/24

Sailing Weather Forecast

Optimist Nationals

Lake Minnetonka, MN

Issued: 0700LT Tuesday, 24 JULY 2007

 

REQUEST: Feedback is an important part of the process toward improving weather forecasts. Please send daily weather notes and feedback to msanders@sailwx.com. Thanks!

 

WEATHER RISKS: There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.

Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories.

 

Synopsis: Yesterday the wind did not behave as outlined in the forecast. During the morning wind speeds did not build and then near noontime the scenario outlined in the hedge occurred as winds broke from the forecasted S flow to a wide variation in direction. A return to the forecasted SE direction occurred near 1400 but the wind remained a few knows below the predicted 07-11 kt range.  

 

Today’s forecast is less complicated and a better outcome is anticipated. Minnesota resides between weather systems but weak high pressure should build into the area and provide sailors with a steady S to SSE wind direction under clouds with some afternoon sunshine. The sunshine and southerly wind continues tomorrow with building heat.    

 

Current Conditions: The wind has been blowing from the S at 02-05 kts since 0100 and the MYC weather station shows that it presently remains this way.  

 

Satellite images indicate low clouds with breaks of sunshine exist across Minnesota this morning. Radar shows that there is no precipitation with these clouds in the Lake Minnetonka area. However, surface observations confirm areas of fog where the visibility is reduced below 1 mile.

 

Forecast Discussion: The present S wind should continue at 02-05 kts until about 1100. Thereafter a slight left shift to the SSE occurs and the wind gains a few knots to 03-06 kts. The wind remains out of the SSE through the afternoon with a small build in speed to 04-08 kts after 1400 and gusts to 11 kts.    

 

Weather: The clouds of this morning are going to stick around through much of the day. However, there should be a thinning and breaking of the clouds late in the morning so that the amount of sunshine increases, especially during the afternoon. Temperatures will be hot, topping out near 89 F, and it will feel very muggy. Under the clouds the UV index is reduced to a moderate 5-6.

 

Seas: Rather calm waters with only occasional chop today on Lake Minnetonka due to the light wind.

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/24/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction 

1000      02-05         S    

1100      03-06         S-SSE       …slight left hand shift

1200      03-06         S-SSE      

1300      04-07         SSE         …small build in the wind speed underway  

1400      04-08         SSE        

1500      04-08         SSE         …max winds of the day, gusts to 11 kts

1600      04-08         SSE  

1700      04-07         SSE        

1800      04-07         SSE-S

 

Hedge: 1) Forecast confidence is ABOVE AVERAGE today. The light wind today means that there will be areas of the lake where the wind is very shifty and rather clam. The S to SSE direction should produce calm areas along the southern shore of the lake with the best winds over central and northern locations. Also, along the eastern and western shoreline the wind will experience less resistance over the water. This may bend the wind to the SE along the eastern shore and SW near the western shoreline.     

 

2) Just like yesterday, breaking clouds this morning will provide an opportunity for pockets of increased wind speed. This means that winds may be stronger, but shiftier, along the edge of clouds and weaker, but less shifty, beneath the clouds.    

 

Tuesday (24 JULY 2007): The wind persists out of the S-SSE tomorrow and there should be a bit better breeze. In the morning winds start out light from the S at 03-06 kts. Then by noontime expect a build in the wind to 06-09 kts. The best wind of the day should be during the mid afternoon, around 1500, as the breeze reaches 07-11 kts with gusts to 15 kts and a slight left shift to the SSE is expected.    

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Wednesday (07/25/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction

1000      03-06         S

1200      06-09         S

1400      07-10         S-SSE

1600      07-11         SSE

1800      06-10         SSE-S

 

Weather: Sunshine with a few clouds are expected tomorrow with no significant weather features affecting the Lake Minnetonka area. The heat will continue to build as temperatures reach 93 F with extremely humid conditions.

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

 

Thursday (26 JULY 2007): The day starts with a SSE wind 04-07 kts through the morning and then turns SW during the afternoon with an increase to 06-11 kts. Another hot high near 90 F, sunshine in the morning followed by increasing afternoon clouds with showers late.

 

Friday (27 JULY 2007):  A NW wind at 05-09 kts through noon then turning left to the N and increasing to 08-12 kts. Morning clouds and possibly shower followed by increasing sunshine and a high of 85 F.

 

Saturday (28 JULY 2007): Expect a NE wind to start the day at 02-05 kts, turning ENE-E in the afternoon at 04-08 kts. Mostly sunny skies and reaching 86 F.  

 

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Girls Nationals

2007 USODA Girls Nationals and Green Fleet Clinic

The first day of the Nationals began yesterday with

eighty girls competing in the Girls Nationals on Lake

Minnetonka and over thirty Green Fleeters learning

and having fun under the leadership of OptiGuru

Tom Coleman in the Green Fleet Clinic for new Opti

skippers.

The female skippers enjoyed 8-12 knot morning

winds and a nice break from the hot Minnesota

sun. The winds died down a bit in the afternoon but

remained challenging with frequent shifts. One competitor

was heard remarking, "I adjusted my sprit pole constantly!"

The girls completed four races and headed towards Light

House Island shortly after 3:30. Minnetonka Yacht Club had

great snacks awaiting the competitors and several vendors

were in the Club house to keep the girls occupied while

protests were being heard. This mom did not stay for

the awards ceremony as both daughter and teammates

were pooped. However, the results for the race are posted

on the USODA Nationals website.

Expect lots more action as another 2oo+ male skippers join

the ranks and begin four days of Open competition today.

Opti Forecast 7/23

Sailing Weather Forecast

Optimist Nationals

Lake Minnetonka, MN

Issued: 0700LT Monday, 23 JULY 2007

 

REQUEST: Feedback is an important part of the process toward improving weather forecasts. Please send daily weather notes and feedback to msanders@sailwx.com. Thanks!

 

WEATHER RISKS: There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.

Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories.

 

Synopsis: Despite a few minor instances yesterdays forecast remained on track in what was a challenging weather environment. As predicted the wind was southerly through the day, building to the forecasted 09-12 kts during mid afternoon. Unanticipated was a slight left hand shift to the SSW from 1130-1300 and gusts a few knots above the forecasted 17 kt limit. There was also a brief lull in the wind speed near 1430 as thunderstorm passed to the northeast.  

 

Today’s forecast is complicated as the Lake Minnetonka area remains on the periphery of high pressure centered over the southeastern Great Lakes. The distant high will be unable to prevent small disturbances from developing in the unstable air over Minnesota. Several of these very small areas of low pressure will cross the state today and this means shifty winds and some clouds but it should remain dry.    

 

Current Conditions: A S-SSW breeze at 06-09 kts has been in place since midnight and at 0630 this continues to be the case at the MYC weather station, Minneapolis, and Flying cloud.

 

Satellite images depict an area of broken clouds across central and southern Minnesota including the Lake Minnetonka area. These clouds are moving southwest and slowly dissipating in converge. Rain and thunderstorms associated with these clouds is indicated by radar over the far southeastern portion of the state. Surface observations report unrestricted visibility at 10 miles or greater away from areas of rain.   

 

Forecast Discussion: A southerly wind at 06-09 kts will continue this morning over Lake Minnetonka. Approaching 1300 the wind builds slightly to 07-11 kts with gusts to 15 kts and a slight right hand shift to the SSE is likely. Late in the afternoon, near 1700, a continued right shift to the SE is probable as wind speeds ease to 05-09 kts.     

 

Weather: The broken clouds currently overhead remain for several hours before clearing to mostly sunny conditions ensues near 1100. Temperatures gradually rise this morning to an afternoon high of 89 F and the high humidity will make it feel quite sticky. Once the sunshine breaks through the clouds the UV index rises to a high 9-10 so put that sunscreen on.  

 

Seas: Light winds today mean relatively calm waters so only a slight chop is expected on Lake Minnetonka today.

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/23/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction 

1000      06-09         SSW-S

1100      06-10         S           …slight build in speed underway

1200      07-10         S          

1300      07-11         S-SSE       …small right shift     

1400      07-11         SSE         …max winds of the day, gusts to 15 kts

1500      07-11         SSE        

1600      06-10         SSE  

1700      05-09         SSE-SE      …continued right shift, declining winds

1800      05-09         SE

 

Hedge: 1) Forecast confidence is BELOW AVERAGE for wind direction and AVERAGE for wind speed today. Lake Minnetonka will reside near several wind shifts today. Significant changes in wind direction are expected to remain west of the area. However, there is a possibility that a significant change in wind direction occurs at the lake today. If this happens the most likely scenario would be a quick and significant right shift to the E-ENE around 1200 and then a return to the SE late in the afternoon.  

 

2) Breaking clouds this morning should provide an opportunity for pockets of increased wind speed. This means that winds may be stronger, but shiftier, along the edge of clouds and weaker, but less shifty, beneath the clouds.    

 

Tuesday (24 JULY 2007): A greater confidence exists in tomorrows forecast as a steady southerly flow returns to Lake Minnetonka. A light S wind at 03-06 kts is expected at sunrise and though the morning hours. Winds remain out of the S at midday and during the afternoon but by 1200 they should increase to 05-09 kts with gusts to 13 kts. A slight right shift to the SSE occurs near 1700 as winds relax to 04-08 kts.  

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Tuesday (07/24/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction

1000      03-06         S

1200      05-09         S

1400      05-09         S

1600      04-08         S-SSE

1800      04-08         SSE

 

Weather: High pressure builds weakly into the area tomorrow but enough to keep skies mostly sunny. The bright sunshine sends temperatures to a toasty high of 91 F and it will feel very humid.

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

 

Wednesday (25 JULY 2007): A SSE wind at 04-09 kts in the morning becomes S and increase to 06-11 kts by 1200. Blazing hot sunshine with a high of 93 F.

 

Thursday (26 JULY 2007):  Wind SSE in the morning at 02-05 kts, building to 05-09 and turning left to the SE by 1300. A continued build in speed to 07-11 kts and shift to the ESE late in the day. Sunshine with building afternoon clouds and evening showers, high of 89 F.

 

Friday (27 JULY 2007): Expect a NNW wind to start the day at 03-06 kts. Turning N near noontime and then shifting left to the NNE at 05-10 kts through the afternoon. Sunshine mixed with clouds and high near 85 F.