Opti Forecast 7/24

Sailing Weather Forecast

Optimist Nationals

Lake Minnetonka, MN

Issued: 0700LT Tuesday, 24 JULY 2007

 

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WEATHER RISKS: There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.

Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories.

 

Synopsis: Yesterday the wind did not behave as outlined in the forecast. During the morning wind speeds did not build and then near noontime the scenario outlined in the hedge occurred as winds broke from the forecasted S flow to a wide variation in direction. A return to the forecasted SE direction occurred near 1400 but the wind remained a few knows below the predicted 07-11 kt range.  

 

Today’s forecast is less complicated and a better outcome is anticipated. Minnesota resides between weather systems but weak high pressure should build into the area and provide sailors with a steady S to SSE wind direction under clouds with some afternoon sunshine. The sunshine and southerly wind continues tomorrow with building heat.    

 

Current Conditions: The wind has been blowing from the S at 02-05 kts since 0100 and the MYC weather station shows that it presently remains this way.  

 

Satellite images indicate low clouds with breaks of sunshine exist across Minnesota this morning. Radar shows that there is no precipitation with these clouds in the Lake Minnetonka area. However, surface observations confirm areas of fog where the visibility is reduced below 1 mile.

 

Forecast Discussion: The present S wind should continue at 02-05 kts until about 1100. Thereafter a slight left shift to the SSE occurs and the wind gains a few knots to 03-06 kts. The wind remains out of the SSE through the afternoon with a small build in speed to 04-08 kts after 1400 and gusts to 11 kts.    

 

Weather: The clouds of this morning are going to stick around through much of the day. However, there should be a thinning and breaking of the clouds late in the morning so that the amount of sunshine increases, especially during the afternoon. Temperatures will be hot, topping out near 89 F, and it will feel very muggy. Under the clouds the UV index is reduced to a moderate 5-6.

 

Seas: Rather calm waters with only occasional chop today on Lake Minnetonka due to the light wind.

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/24/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction 

1000      02-05         S    

1100      03-06         S-SSE       …slight left hand shift

1200      03-06         S-SSE      

1300      04-07         SSE         …small build in the wind speed underway  

1400      04-08         SSE        

1500      04-08         SSE         …max winds of the day, gusts to 11 kts

1600      04-08         SSE  

1700      04-07         SSE        

1800      04-07         SSE-S

 

Hedge: 1) Forecast confidence is ABOVE AVERAGE today. The light wind today means that there will be areas of the lake where the wind is very shifty and rather clam. The S to SSE direction should produce calm areas along the southern shore of the lake with the best winds over central and northern locations. Also, along the eastern and western shoreline the wind will experience less resistance over the water. This may bend the wind to the SE along the eastern shore and SW near the western shoreline.     

 

2) Just like yesterday, breaking clouds this morning will provide an opportunity for pockets of increased wind speed. This means that winds may be stronger, but shiftier, along the edge of clouds and weaker, but less shifty, beneath the clouds.    

 

Tuesday (24 JULY 2007): The wind persists out of the S-SSE tomorrow and there should be a bit better breeze. In the morning winds start out light from the S at 03-06 kts. Then by noontime expect a build in the wind to 06-09 kts. The best wind of the day should be during the mid afternoon, around 1500, as the breeze reaches 07-11 kts with gusts to 15 kts and a slight left shift to the SSE is expected.    

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Wednesday (07/25/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction

1000      03-06         S

1200      06-09         S

1400      07-10         S-SSE

1600      07-11         SSE

1800      06-10         SSE-S

 

Weather: Sunshine with a few clouds are expected tomorrow with no significant weather features affecting the Lake Minnetonka area. The heat will continue to build as temperatures reach 93 F with extremely humid conditions.

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

 

Thursday (26 JULY 2007): The day starts with a SSE wind 04-07 kts through the morning and then turns SW during the afternoon with an increase to 06-11 kts. Another hot high near 90 F, sunshine in the morning followed by increasing afternoon clouds with showers late.

 

Friday (27 JULY 2007):  A NW wind at 05-09 kts through noon then turning left to the N and increasing to 08-12 kts. Morning clouds and possibly shower followed by increasing sunshine and a high of 85 F.

 

Saturday (28 JULY 2007): Expect a NE wind to start the day at 02-05 kts, turning ENE-E in the afternoon at 04-08 kts. Mostly sunny skies and reaching 86 F.  

 

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