Opti Forecast 7/26

Sailing Weather Forecast

Optimist Nationals

Lake Minnetonka, MN

Issued: 0700LT Thursday, 26 JULY 2007

 

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WEATHER RISKS: 1) There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.

2) Showers and thunderstorms cross the area this afternoon and evening. These storms pose a threat to sailors, especially young ones, because they will likely produce heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds.

3) Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories and keep an eye to the sky!

 

Synopsis: Forecasted conditions occurred yesterday on Lake Minnetonka. The wind held to the predicted southerly direction through the day. Wind speed was also well forecasted at 05-09 kts before noon and then an increase to 08-12 kts during the mid afternoon. Wind gusts were under forecasted at 16 kts as gusts reached 20 kts at 1500.  

 

A cold front crosses the Lake Minnetonka area this afternoon with a period of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be out of the SW-WSW ahead of the front and then turn to the NW after the front passes. Improving weather comes tomorrow along with a brisk N wind, it is likely to be the best sailing conditions of the week.

 

A SSW wind at 04-07 kts with gusts to 10 kts is present at the MYC weather station and others around the region at 0700 this morning.

 

Satellite imagines indicate a mixture of clouds and sunshine with the radar currently clear of any precipitation. Good visibility at 8 miles or more is indicated by surface observations around the area.  

 

Forecast Discussion: The SSW wind currently in place turns to the SW by 1000 and blows at 05-09 kts. A build to 06-10 kts occurs by 1300 with a continued left hand shift to the WSW. The nearby front continues to push the wind left so that by 1600 it is from the W and remains at 06-10 kts before a move to the NW by 1900. Through the afternoon winds will gust to 17 kts. However, when the front crosses the area any thunderstorms can cause the wind to become briefly strong and very gusty.

 

Weather:  Mostly cloudy skies through the morning are replaced by complete cloud cover this afternoon. The front brings the chance of showers by 1300 with precipitation likely by 1500. Periods of rain and thunderstorms should then continue until midnight. Again, heavy downpours, strong wind gusts, and lighting are possible from any of the storms that occur with the frontal passage. Temperatures today reach 90 F but it will feel hotter with the high humidity. The UV index remains low, near 6. 

 

Seas: Light chop is expected on the lake but waters can become quite unsettled in any strong storms this afternoon. 

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/26/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction 

1000      05-09         SSW-SW     

1100      05-09         SW          …wind speeds increase through late morning

1200      06-09         SW         

1300      06-10         SW-WSW                 

1400      06-10         WSW         …gusts to 17 kts through the afternoon

1500      06-10         WSW         …stronger winds/gusts in storms until midnight

1600      06-10         WSW-W

1700      07-11         W          

1800      07-11         W-WNW

 

Hedge: Forecast confidence is ABOVE AVERAGE through 1300 and then AVERAGE thereafter due to the passage of the front. Winds may turn to the left a bit slower or faster depending on the exact movement of the front. However, confidence is high that the front crosses the area late in the day with the outlined period of rain and thunderstorms. Consequently, the best, and safest, sailing of the day will be before 1300 but this could be extended to as late as 1500. Please pay attention to the sky this afternoon for approaching storms.   

 

Friday (27 JULY 2007): Tomorrow is likely the best sailing day of the week due to a steady N wind. The area should start off the morning in a 06-09 kt wind from the N. The wind remains N through most of the afternoon, turning NNE late, and increases slightly to 07-11 kts. Gusts to 18 kts are possible though the day. 

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Friday (07/27/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction

1000      06-09         N

1200      06-10         N

1400      07-11         N

1600      07-11         N

1800      06-10         N-NNE

 

Weather: High pressure over the Dakotas pushes towards Minnesota tomorrow. Sunshine with a few clouds are likely through the morning and then expect mostly sunny conditions later in the day. Much drier air makes for a comfortable day with a high near 84 F.      

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

 

Saturday (28 JULY 2007): Winds ESE at 04-07 during the morning build to 06-09 kts after noon with a shift to the SE. Temperatures top out near 85 F under mostly sunny skies.  

 

Sunday (29 JULY 2007):  A SSE-S wind through the day starting off at 03-06 kts and building to 05-10 kts. A high of 87 F with sunny skies.   

 

Monday (30 JULY 2007): Expect a southerly wind at 04-07 kts during the morning, building to 07-11 kts later in the day. More sunshine and another high near 87 F.   

 

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