Opti Forecast 7/27

Sailing Weather Forecast

Optimist Nationals

Lake Minnetonka, MN

Issued: 0700LT Friday, 27 JULY 2007

 

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WEATHER RISKS: There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.

Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories and keep an eye to the sky!

 

Synopsis: Yesterdays forecast unfolded nicely. Winds blew out of the SW at 05-09 kts as predicted through 1300. Then the forecasted left hand shift to the WSW and eventually W occurred during the afternoon as winds held at 06-10 kts. Gusts were a bit higher than expected, near 23 kts, and the precipitation arrived nearly two hours after the predicted 1500 start time.    

 

The best sailing conditions of the remaining race week should occur today. High pressure sinking southeast from the Dakotas will provide the Lake Minnetonka area with a steady N wind, perfect for Opti sailing. The high produces clear weather through the weekend but it will lead to some light winds, especially on Saturday.  

 

At 0630 the weather stations at Flying Cloud and Minneapolis are in a northerly wind near 6 kts with gusts to 14 kts. 

 

Radar is clear while satellite shows a few clouds so the morning dawns with sunshine and a few clouds. Surface observations show no obstructions to visibility.

 

Forecast Discussion: Expect a N wind through much of the day. A 07-10 kt wind kicks off the day at 1000 this morning. Come 1300 an increase to 09-13 kts occurs as winds remain northerly. Gusts upwards of 18 kts are possible during the afternoon. Late in the afternoon, near 1700, a very slight left shift to the NNE may occur as the wind decreases to 07-11 kts.  

 

Weather: After a few clouds very early this morning clear sunny skies are the theme of the day. The air is less humid than yesterday so combined with a cooler high near 84 F it will feel much more comfortable. The bright sunshine means that the UV index will be high at 9. 

 

Seas: Light chop is expected through the day on the lake. 

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/27/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction 

1000      07-10         N    

1100      08-11         N           …wind speeds increase through late morning

1200      09-12         N          

1300      09-13         N           …best sailing between 1300-1700    

1400      09-13         N           …gusts to 18 kts through the afternoon

1500      09-13         N          

1600      08-12         N    

1700      07-11         N-NNE       …possible small left shift

1800      07-11         N-NNE

 

Hedge: Forecast confidence is ABOVE AVERAGE today. As noted the best wind of the next three days should occur today. Take full advantage of this wind because tomorrow it will become very light and shifty before a slight improvement on Sunday. The best wind of the day is likely between 1300 and 1700 and will be over the central and southern portions of the lake. Gusts will also be stronger further from shore, over open water.

 

Saturday (28 JULY 2007): Tomorrow is going to be a challenging day for sailing due to very light and variable wind. The day begins at 1000 with a very light wind at 01-04 kts out of the E. A persistent left hand shift will occur through the day so that by 1300 the wind is ESE and then SE come 1700. However, with a very light wind at only 03-06 kts during the afternoon the direction can vary quite a bit.       

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Saturday (07/28/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction

1000      01-04         ENE-E

1200      02-05         E-ESE

1400      03-06         ESE

1600      03-06         ESE-SE

1800      02-05         SE-SSE

 

Weather: High pressure overhead will be responsible for the light wind but also produce clear blue skies though the day. Temperatures reach a high near 86 F with manageable humidity.  

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

 

Sunday (29 JULY 2007): A S wind to kick off the day backs SW by noontime. Some improvement in the wind over Saturday as a light morning breeze at 02-05 kts builds to 04-08 kts by early afternoon. The thermometer reaches 87 F with sunny skies.   

 

Monday (30 JULY 2007):  Expect a southerly wind through the day growing from 03-06 kts early to 05-09 kts by 1200 and through the afternoon. A high of 89 F under bright sunshine.   

 

Tuesday (31 JULY 2007): A steady but light S wind at 04-08 kts during the day. Sunshine with increasing afternoon clouds and a high of 88 F. 

 

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