Optimist Nationals
Issued: 0700LT Saturday, 28 JULY 2007
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WEATHER RISKS: There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.
Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories and keep an eye to the sky!
Synopsis: The forecast unfolded as planned yesterday, producing fine conditions for Opti sailing. As predicted the wind held from the N through the day with a slight shift to the NNW near 1600. The MYC weather station shows that wind speeds behaved as planned, building from 07-10 kts in the early morning to 09-13 kts during the afternoon. Wind gusts were slightly underestimated at 18 kts as several in the low 20 kt range were reported.
High pressure builds overhead today and while this results nice weather it is bad news for sailors. This weather scenario means that the wind will be extremely light to calm and quite variable in direction through the day. Only slight improvement is expected tomorrow as the high slides southeast and the area is placed in a weak return flow.
A calm to near 2 kt wind from the NE is reported by the MYC weather station at 0630 this morning. The light wind is quite variable around the region with other observing stations in an easterly or northerly wind.
Radar is clear but satellite indicates a band of broken clouds stretching across the central and southern portion of
Forecast Discussion: The current NE wind is likely to turn E by 1000 and then SE come 1200. Wind speed through the morning hours is going to be very light at 01-03 kts with calm periods. The wind persists from the SE through the afternoon with only a slight increase in speed to 02-06 kts, again with calm periods. Wind direction tends to vary in light air so the indicated directions are the forecast average for the period.
Weather: The clouds presently overhead stick around through the morning hours, breaking at times to give peeks of sunshine. Skies become mostly sunny this afternoon, it will feel comfortable with a high near 87 F and low humidity. After the clouds clear the UV index will rise to a high value of 10.
Seas: Glassy conditions on the water today with the nearly calm wind.
Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/28/2007):
Time(LT) Wind Speed Wind Direction
1000 01-03 ENE-E
1100 01-04 E …very light to calm winds during the AM
1200 02-04 ESE-SE …slight turn to the SE
1300 02-05 SE
1400 02-06 SE …general SE direction but remaining shifty
1500 02-06 SE
1600 02-06 SE
1700 02-05 SE-SSE
1800 01-04 SSE
Hedge: Forecast confidence is AVERAGE today for wind speed but BELOW AVERAGE for wind direction. As noted the light wind is going to result in shifty conditions so the indicated direction is the forecasted average at that time. In such conditions the wind tends to be puffy, blowing for a short period and then becoming calm. Sailors must pay very close attention to the wind direction and speed in these conditions so that they can take advantage of momentary puffs of wind. These puffs of wind are most likely on the edge of breaking clouds so also pay attention to the sky.
Sunday (29 JULY 2007): Wind conditions improve slightly tomorrow as the high slides just SE of the area. Winds again start off light during the morning at 02-05 kts from the SSW. Near noontime a slight turn the SW is expected as winds build to 04-08 kts and hold through the afternoon.
Detailed Wind Forecast for Sunday (07/29/2007):
Time(LT) Wind Speed Wind Direction
1000 02-05 SSW
1200 03-07 SSW-SW
1400 04-08 SW
1600 04-08 SW
1800 03-07 SW
Weather: Sunshine with a few scattered clouds. The thermometer rises to 88 F and it will feel slightly more humid.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
Monday (30 JULY 2007): A S wind at 03-06 kts through the day. Bright sunny skies with a high near 91 F.
Tuesday (31 JULY 2007): Expect a continued southerly wind building from 03-06 kts early to 05-09 kts by 1300 and through the afternoon. Temperatures reach 92 F under hazy skies.
Wednesday (01 August 2007): The day starts with a SSW wind that begins to turn to the WSW by mid afternoon. Wind speeds of 05-09 kts through the day. Sunny with increasing afternoon clouds and scattered late day thunderstorms.
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