Opti Forecast 7/29

Sailing Weather Forecast

Optimist Nationals

Lake Minnetonka, MN

Issued: 0700LT Sunday, 29 JULY 2007

 

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WEATHER RISKS: There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.

Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories.

 

Synopsis: As predicted lots of dead air and very light winds made for poor sailing conditions yesterday on Lake Minnetonka. The forecast called for a NE wind gradually turning to the E by 1100 and then SE by 1300. This occurred but as predicted the wind remained below 6 kts so shifty conditions persisted though the day. 

 

Yesterday high pressure directly overhead resulted in very light winds. Today the high shifts slightly to the SE, over southern Wisconsin. This places the Lake Minnetonka area in a marginally better, but not great, wind situation as a S-SSW flow becomes established. The good news is that the high provides wall to wall sunshine.     

 

At 0630 this morning the MYC weather station and all others around the region are reporting a calm wind. The wind has remained calm since 0100 this past night.    

 

Satellite and radar images are clear this morning with high pressure firmly in control. Surface observations around the region indicate unrestricted visibility. 

 

Forecast Discussion: The presently calm wind should gain some intensity through the early morning so that by 1000 it is out of the S at 02-05 kts. Come 1300 a build to 04-08 kts is expected as the wind remains southerly. Late in the afternoon, near 1700, a shift to the SSW occurs as speeds decline to 03-06 kts. Remember that such light winds tend to be shifty so the indicated direction is the average for that period.

 

Weather: Clear and sunny skies are the name of the game today courtesy of high pressure. Under the bright hazy sunshine temperatures rise to high of 89 F with moderate humidity. Expect a high UV index near 10.  

 

Seas: A Calm, at times glassy, lake surface is expected today with light winds.  

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/29/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction 

1000      02-05         SSE-S       …very light winds during the early AM

1100      02-06         S           …a general S wind but remaining shifty

1200      03-07         S         

1300      04-08         S                

1400      04-08         S           …max winds of the day but still shifty

1500      04-08         S          

1600      03-07         S    

1700      03-06         S-SSW      

1800      03-06         SSW

 

Hedge: Forecast confidence is AVERAGE today. Again, remember the light wind is going to result in shifty conditions so the indicated direction is the forecasted average at that time. Unlike yesterday, the sky will be clear without the clouds that helped to create occasional puffs of wind. Instead, the lake will experience a steady light wind through the day. Heating may result in the development of a weak lake breeze this afternoon. This would produce a wind blowing from the lake to the shore. Along the southern part of the lake such a wind would oppose the S wind and create a calm area. However, near the northern shore a lake breeze would aid the S wind to increase wind speeds. Consequently, expect the best wind this afternoon across the northern portion of the lake.

 

Monday (30 JULY 2007): Winds build slightly tomorrow as a stronger SW flow is established. Expect a SW wind though the day beginning at 03-06 kts near 1000 and then building to a maximum of 05-09 kts around 1500. Winds will gust to 15 kts.

 

Detailed Wind Forecast for Monday (07/30/2007):

Time(LT)  Wind Speed    Wind Direction

1000      03-06         SW

1200      04-08         SW

1400      05-09         SW

1600      05-09         SW

1800      04-08         SW-WSW

 

Weather: The sunshine continues as the thermometer pushes to a high near 92 F with building humidity.    

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

 

Tuesday (31 JULY 2007): A SW wind at 04-07 kts until 1200 and then turning S and building to 07-11 kts during the afternoon. Hazy sunshine with a high of 94 F.

 

Wednesday (01 August 2007):  Expect a SSW wind at 06-10 kts prior to 1300 and then  veering to the WSW by 1600 at 08-12 kts. Sunshine with increasing late afternoon clouds and scattered thunderstorms, a high near 92 F. 

 

Thursday (02 August 2007): The day starts with a NE wind that begins to turn to the NNE by mid afternoon. Wind speeds of 03-06 kts early, building to 05-09 kts during the afternoon. Partly cloudy with a high of 86.

 

 

Sailing Weather Services hopes that you enjoyed this forecast and found it useful during Nationals. Again, please feel free to send any comments to msanders@sailwx.com. Congratulations to all the young sailors, you did a great job navigating the variety of wind conditions during the race week.    

 

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