Sailing Weather Forecast
Optimist Nationals
Lake Minnetonka, MN
Issued: 0700LT Thursday, 19 JULY 2007 REQUEST: Feedback is an important part of the process toward improving weather forecasts. Please send daily weather notes and feedback to msanders@sailwx.com. Thanks!
WEATHER RISKS: 1) There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.
Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories.
Synopsis: Yesterday, an area of low pressure crossed southern Minnesota brining clouds and some showers to the Lake Minnetonka area. Winds through the day remained light at 2-5 kts with great variability in direction though they have been northerly since 2200.
Today, high pressure over central Canada settles southward towards Minnesota. The high will produce mostly sunny skies and a steady wind that is out of the N-NNE through the day. This high remains nearby for several days so a stretch of nice weather is in the works.
Current Conditions: On Lake Minnetonka this morning the MYC weather station and others are reporting a northerly wind between 3 and 6 kts with gusts to 11 kts at 0630.
Satellite images and surface observations show clouds exiting the region and sunshine building with unrestricted visibility.
Forecast Discussion: A light breeze at 4-8 kts out of the north will continue through 0900. Thereafter the wind should build to 11-15 kts with gusts to 20kts and a slight righthand shift to the NNE expected. During the mid-afternoon, around 1600, expect an easing in wind speed to 4-9 kts. A shift back to the north is likely when this decline occurs before a steady right shift and further easing occurs near 1800.
Weather: Bright and sunny skies are expected through the day. Temperatures will top out near 80 F with very low humidity. The UV index will be high, near 9, so wear your sunscreen!
Seas: Glassy conditions this morning are replaced by very slight chop as the wind increase.
Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/19/2007):
Time(LT) Wind Speed Wind Direction
1000 07-10 N …building breeze
1100 09-13 NNE …slight right shift
1200 11-15 NNE …gusting to 20kts through mid-afternoon
1300 11-15 NNE
1400 10-14 NNE …
1500 08-13 N-NNE …easing wind speeds, slight left shift
1600 04-10 N-NNE
1700 04-09 NNE …declining/shiftier winds late day
1800 03-08 NNE-NE
Hedge: Forecast confidence is ABOVE AVERAGE for wind speed and direction. Winds should build by mid morning to 11-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts from the NNE and remain this way through mid afternoon. These wind conditions are likely over the open waters of the lake. However, closer to the northern and eastern shore the wind flow off the land will dampen the wind speed and produce a shiftier wind from the N to ENE. This means better sailing conditions will exist further from shore.
Friday (20 JULY 2007): Expect a light ESE wind at 3-7 kts through the morning. Approaching noontime and though early afternoon a slight building of the wind to 4-10 kts from the SE should occur. Later in the afternoon winds relax to 3-7 kts and turn to the SSE.
Detailed Wind Forecast for Friday (07/20/2007):
Time(LT) Wind Speed Wind Direction
1000 03-07 ESE
1200 04-10 SE
1400 04-10 SE
1600 04-08 SE-SSE
1800 03-17 SSE
Weather: High pressure sits just to the east of Lake Minnetonka tomorrow so sunny skies continue though a few puffy cumulous clouds are not out of the question during the afternoon. It will again be quite comfortable with low humidity and a high of 79 F.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
Saturday (21 JULY 2007): SE at 3-7 in the morning increasing to 5-9 out of the SSE in the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies.
Sunday (22 JULY 2007): A S wind through the day at 5-9 kts during the morning then building to 9-12 kts during the early afternoon. Sunshine with a few afternoon clouds.
Monday (23 JULY 2007): Wind at 4-10 kts and from the SW as skies remain sunny with occasional afternoon clouds.
1 comment:
Keep up the good work.
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