Sailing Weather Forecast
Optimist Nationals
Lake Minnetonka, MN
Issued: 0700LT Wednesday, 25 JULY 2007
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WEATHER RISKS: There are no active weather warnings or advisories for the sailing area.
Please tune your VHF to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories.
Synopsis: Yesterdays forecast unfolded as planned, at times, but there were several bumps in the road. During the morning, between 0900 and 1100, the wind became nearly calm and quite variable instead of the forecasted 03-05 kts from the S. The wind returned to the S for most of the afternoon but there were several brief periods of calm and variable winds that were outside the 04-08 kt forecasted range. These interruptions were caused by nearby thunderstorms that affected the local winds.
Today Minnesota resides between low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to the southeast. This sets up a southerly wind that builds during the afternoon to provide good Optimist sailing conditions. The area remains dry and in S to SW wind until tomorrow evening when a cold front crosses the area with some showers and turns the wind to the W.
The MYC weather station and others are presently reporting a very light S wind at 02-05 kts at 0630. The wind has been out of the S since last evening, decreasing in speed during the early morning hours.
A few scattered clouds exist overhead as seen on the Satellite. Radar indicates precipitation free skies with surface observations denoting some patchy fog around the region where visibility is reduced below 5 miles.
Forecast Discussion: A southerly wind will be in place all day in the Lake Minnetonka area. This wind is going to be quite light at 02-06 kts through 0900 so some variability will exist. Thereafter the wind should build to 06-10 kts by 1200. Through the afternoon wind speeds increase to 08-12 kts with gusts to 16 kts and the direction holding from the S. Maximum winds should occur between 1500-1700.
Weather: Expect a good amount of sunshine today along with scattered clouds and haze. It is going to be another hot one with the thermometer reaching 93 and high humidity making it quite muggy. The UV index is high today in the 9-10 range.
Seas: The calm waters of this morning should develop some chop by midday as wind speeds build.
Detailed Wind Forecast for Today (07/25/2007):
Time(LT) Wind Speed Wind Direction
1000 03-07 S
1100 05-09 S …wind speeds increase through late morning
1200 06-10 S
1300 07-10 S
1400 07-11 S
1500 08-12 S …max winds of the day, gusts to 16 kts
1600 08-12 S
1700 07-12 S
1800 06-10 S
Hedge: Forecast confidence is ABOVE AVERAGE today as the wind should hold firmly out of the S and increase in speed, especially during the afternoon. The southerly direction will produce lighter areas of wind along the southern shore of the lake with the best winds over central and northern locations. Also, along the eastern and western shoreline the wind encounters less resistance over the water than the adjacent land. This may bend the wind to the SE along the eastern shore and SW near the western shoreline.
Thursday (26 JULY 2007): The S wind persists into tomorrow morning and the day should begin with it blowing at 03-06 kts through 0900. A slow right hand shift then begins and continues through the remainder of the day. By 1200 the area will be in a SSW wind moving at a 06-10 kt clip. A continued build to a maximum 08-12 kts occurs near 1500 with the wind becoming SW at that time. The persistent right turn continues so that by 1800 winds are nearly westerly.
Detailed Wind Forecast for Wednesday (07/25/2007):
Time(LT) Wind Speed Wind Direction
1000 04-07 S-SSW
1200 06-10 SSW
1400 07-11 SSW-SW
1600 08-12 SW
1800 07-11 WSW-W
Weather: The day kicks off with mostly sunny skies but clouds will slowly increase, especially during the afternoon, as a cold front approaches. The area should remain dry through 1600 when the threat of showers increases, precipitation is likely during the evening and first half of the overnight. Temperatures remain toasty with a high of 90 F and continued high humidity.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
Friday (27 JULY 2007): This should be a very good sailing day with a 06-10 kt NNW to N wind through the day. High temperatures reach 85 F with sunshine and a few clouds.
Saturday (28 JULY 2007): A NE wind at 03-07 kts through 1200, turning left to the ENE and holding at 03-07 during the afternoon. A high of 84 F under mostly sunny skies.
Sunday (29 JULY 2007): Expect a SE wind through the day starting at 04-07 kts and building to 07-11 kts by 1500. More sunshine and another high near 85 F.
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